According to the latest data from Undercurrent News' newly launched "North Pacific Salmon Supply Tracker," 2026 wild salmon harvests in the two major producing regions — the Russian Far East and Alaska — are running far below historical levels, and the market faces severe supply challenges.
Total Harvest at Multi-Year Low
As of August 4, the cumulative harvest of the five major Pacific salmon species (pink, chum, sockeye, coho and king) stood at just 63,032 MT. Undercurrent's comparison index shows harvests running 60% below the relevant historical benchmark — one of the weakest seasons in recent years.
By species, pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) has been the weakest. 2026 is an "off-year" in the pink salmon cycle, and the run distribution has been extremely uneven — VNIRO (Russia's Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography) notes that most fish concentrated in the southern Kuril Islands, with only scattered records in traditional strongholds such as northern Kamchatka. Pink salmon harvests are down 65% versus the comparable 2024 period.
Regional Performance Diverges
Regional data shows steep declines across the Russian Far East:
- West Kamchatka: down 76%, the worst performer
- Sakhalin Oblast: down 69%
- Magadan Oblast: down 63%
- East Kamchatka: down 46%
- Khabarovsk Krai: down 44%
By species, sockeye fell 64% and coho 73%, while chum was relatively resilient but still down 31% — the strongest performer among the five salmon species.
Alaska Fares No Better
Forecasts released earlier by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) projected the state's 2026 commercial pink salmon harvest at 55.9 million fish — half of 2025's 120 million. If realized, it would be the fourth-lowest year since 2000.
By statistical week 30 (July 25), Alaska's pink salmon harvest was down 83% versus the same period in 2025; chum fell 66% and coho 85%. Only sockeye dominated with a cumulative 35 million fish, though still down 28% year on year.
"The two-year life cycle of pink salmon makes forecasting extremely difficult. The bumper 2025 harvest meant 2026 would naturally enter a cyclical decline, but the actual drop still exceeded most industry expectations." — ADF&G official statement
Industry observers broadly expect the tight 2026 North Pacific salmon supply to have far-reaching effects on global markets, with pink salmon raw material and roe prices likely to keep climbing through Q3–Q4. Downstream buyers can diversify single-species supply risk through a multi-category procurement strategy (pollock, halibut, salmon roe and more).